ROCK PAPER SCISSORS
While none of us will know the results until after the 2020 decennial census is complete and Michigan’s Independent Redistricting Commission determines our state’s new congressional, state Senate and House districts, it’s a sure thing that Michigan will lose one Congressional district, and therefore one Electoral College vote. As Politico recently noted, the U.S. population continues to shift south and west, and Michigan is projected, along with New York, California, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, West Virginia, Alabama, Rhode Island and Illinois to lose a seat. So whose will it be? While Politico contends that since freshmen Reps. Elissa Slotkin (D-Rochester, Rochester Hills, northern Oakland, parts of Livingston and Ingham counties) and Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Troy, western Oakland and Wayne counties) both flipped traditionally Republican districts, even if they win re-election in 2020, they could be in danger of having one of their districts carved up – therefore depriving them each of Democratic votes. Politicos we talk to acknowledge their districts’ boundaries will likely change, but that more likely, the district held by Rep. Brenda Lawrence (D-Detroit, Southfield, Farmington Hills, West Bloomfield) could go away. While Lawrence’s is a majority-minority district, under the Civil Rights Act, a state only needs to maintain one such district – and that could be achieved via Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit, Dearborn), who filled the seat previously held by the late Rep. John Conyers.