1OTH DISTRICT MYSTERY

The 10th congressional district, following reapportionment in 2020, was considered one of the more competitive districts in the state. Donald Trump took it in 2024 with 54 percent of the vote, yet in 2022 Democrats Jocelyn Benson took this area by 58 percent, and Dana Nessel pulled 54 percent of the vote while Republican John James captured the House seat as he did in 2024. With James now running for governor, the seat is open. The Cook Political Report has it leaning, just barely, Republican. The way some analysts see it, the Rochester and Rochester Hills part of this district, along with the central part of the Macomb County portion, are moderate to Republican areas. The southern part of this Macomb County district leans toward the Democrats. With an April filing deadline, at this point five Republicans and four Democrats are running. Three of the Democrat contenders at the start of this year had a fair amount of cash on hand: Eric Chung, an attorney, $716,000; Tim Greimel, former state representative and former mayor of Pontiac, $480,000; and Christina Hines, former assistant prosecutor, $258,000. Some observers speculate that Hines may be the candidate to beat in the August primary. On the Republican side, three primary candidates at the end of last year also had considerable cash on hand: military veteran Michael Bouchard Jr., son of Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard, $520,000; Justin Kirk, an attorney that had worked in the Commerce Department, $397,981; and Robert Julgjuraj, former Macomb assistant prosecutor, $765,000. A few party observers are now saying Julgjuraj is well connected in Macomb County but others say Bouchard’s family name could carry weight at the polls, even though the Oakland portion of this district only accounts for about 15 percent of overall district population. Count Democrat Hines among those who think Bouchard is the likely general election contender, based on results of a Public Policy Polling poll released in late January. In a Hines-Bouchard contest, she led the son of the Oakland County Sheriff by two points. Bouchard led two other Democrats in the poll by anywhere from two-five points. Once again, observers point out that polls done prior to the late April filing deadline are less reliable.