CRYSTAL BALLS

While debates swirl over the accuracy of political polling, the latest polls in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race seem to indicate it’s statistically within the margin of error – meaning that as absentee voter ballots arrive in homes, either Republican Mike Rogers or Democrat Abdul El-Sayed could be Michigan’s next Senator. In polling for The Detroit News/WDIV-TV, pollster Richard Czuba of Glengariff Group told The Detroit News that currently the race is a “toss-up.” among all likely voters, Rogers is up by one point. El-Sayed has a slight, three-percentage point lead over Rogers among voters who are definitely voting, 48 percent to 45 percent, within the almost four-point margin of error. And among all likely voters, Rogers is up by one point. The deciding factor, Czuba said, will be undecided voters, of whom 80 percent view President Donald Trump negatively, and could be a huge drag on Rogers. “Those are El-Sayed’s voters to go and get,” Czuba said. But El-Sayed is sharply lagging Rogers among independents, he noted, by 14 points, which means the winner could come down to who best brings out the vote. A Post-Schaar School poll for The Washington Post shows a similar three-point lead by El-Sayed over Rogers, with 53 percent of Michigan’s likely voters stating they would prefer Democrats to control the U.S. Senate, but only 48 percent want El-Sayed as their Senator. Amongst all likely voters, 4 in 10 said they were unwilling to support a Muslim for president; among likely Black voters, 83 percent say they want Democrats to control the Senate but only 67 percent back El-Sayed. Black voters have long been mainstays of the Democrat backbone, and strongly supported El-Sayed’s primary opponent Congresswoman Haley Stevens (D-Oakland County) in the August primary, providing an important pickup opportunity for the Democratic candidate.

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  Mike Rogers

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  Abdul El-Sayed