PUNCHING POLLSTERS
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The polls for the marquee races for August’s primary are coming in fast and furious, often with conflicting determinations on who could prevail to be the party’s candidate heading into the November general election for senate and governor. Twiddling the numbers is especially notable amongst the three Democrats fighting to be the standard bearer to replace retiring U.S. Senator Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township). Depending on the day and the poll, any of the three running – Congresswoman Haley Stevens, state Senator Mallory McMorrow or Abdul El-Sayed – are leading in the polls. According to Republican strategist Dennis Darnoi, the latest Glengariff poll, which currently shows as the presumed Republican leader, former Congressman Mike Rogers, narrowly leading all three Democrats, with Stevens at 41.5 percent to Rogers’ 43.8 percent, McMorrow at 40.7 percent to Rogers’ 42.8 percent – each a statistical dead heat – and El-Sayed at 39.8 percent to Rogers’ 44.7 percent. A competing poll, by Mitchell Research, upended Glengariff’s, with El-Sayed in the lead, with 28 percent of Democrats responding versus just 18 percent supporting Stevens and 17 percent supporting McMorrow – but a full 38 percent undecided. “Glengariff polls, especially in gubernatorial years, tend to be very reliable,” Darnoi pointed out. Of note, he said, is that the Mitchell poll, like a previous Emerson poll, indicated they gave 30 percent of the vote to 18-40 year olds, which Darnoi said, “We have seen that age group is about 16 (percent) of the vote, and in a competitive primary, maybe up to 19 percent of voters. The reason that is important is El-Sayed is doing better with that demographic, while Haley is doing better with older voters,” who traditionally have a higher voter turnout. He noted that “McMorrow does well in a social media universe, but actual primary voters in Michigan (may) have a different perspective of her than primary voters.” Democratic consultant Joe DiSano was blunter. “This Mitchell poll was a farce. It was conducted by text, which is answered by more liberal and young respondents. This is all predicated on turning out youth in the August primary.” He continued, prognosticating, “Progressives are outliers. They will continue to be loud and not win other than in small enclaves.”
