THE PREDICTION MARKET

Ten weeks out from absentee ballots being released, and prognosticators bemoan the high numbers – anywhere from 15 percent up to as much as 36 percent – of undecided voters in political polls for the more competitive races. Add to the mix, the prediction markets for those who would wager actual dollars on events like who would win a primary race this August and the general election come November. Prediction market betting has been around for decades but it took a federal court decision in 2024 to open up elections as a legitimate event on which to cast bets. As some trivia – prediction platforms now bring in $2 billion annually but are projected to generate $10 billion a year by 2030. And there are some academic types who maintain that some of the major prediction platforms actually match the more reliable polling that takes place since 2024, but count us among the skeptics on that one. Make of that what you will, here’s what the Polymarket platform shows about the hotly contested race among Democrats for the U.S. Senate position that appears on the primary ballot. On April 20, Abdul El-Sayed led the pack with 51 percent; Mallory McMorrow, 35 percent; and Haley Stevens at 15 percent. On May 17, El-Sayed still ruled and his position increased to 56 percent; McMorrow decreased to 25 percent; and Stevens dropped to 13 percent. Over in the Democrat primary for the U.S. House 11th district, the post Stevens is giving up to run for the U.S. Senate, state Senator Jeremy Moss clocked in at 91 percent, with Aisha Farooqi from Troy and Don Ufford of Bloomfield Township both at five percent. Yes, we will revisit the Polymarket platform just before election night this August. You can bet on that.

Aisha Farooqi

Jeremy Moss

Don Ufford