THE PREDICTION MARKETS

Based on the questionable reliability of polling in the August primary election, especially in the race for the U.S. Senate contest in Michigan, we just had to circle back and see how the prediction markets did compared to the pollsters. We have been following a few races on polymarket.com, so for the sake of consistency that is where we returned. Just prior to the August primary, Abdul El-Sayed was the overwhelming favorite over Haley Stevens in the Senate race, and by substantial margins just like the faulty pollsters had guessed. Literally, tens of thousands of dollars were bet on the outcome of that race on the weekend before election day. Now, on August 16, El-Sayed is favored in the November general election by 56 percent of those betting, with Mike Rogers at 45 percent. On this one event prediction betting site, over $441,000 has been wagered. On the general question of who will control the U.S. Senate after the November nationwide vote, 53 percent say Democrats will rule and 45 percent say Republicans. Already $4 million has been bet on the outcome.