WHAT THE MARKETS SAY

As long as everyone continues to look at an array of shifting political polls, some still with 13-33 percent undecided participants just weeks out from the start of actual voting, we went back to the prediction markets, using the Polymarket online platform like we did on April 20 and May 17 In the race for the U.S. Senate seat, on April 20 Abdul El-Sayed was pulling 51 percent and in May pulled 56 percent. On June 16 he had moved up to 72 percent. Haley Stevens remained in much the same position with 16 percent as opposed to 15 percent in late April and 13 percent in mid-May. Mallory McMorrow numbers keep declining, from 35 percent on April 20 to 25 percent in May and now 10 percent on June 16. While we were at it, we took a quick look at the Democrat contest for the seat in Congress now held by Stevens. State Senator Jeremy Moss has moved from 91 percent in May to 97 percent in mid-June. Don Ufford dropped from five percent in May to two percent in June, while Aisha Farooqi fell from five percent to one percent. Keep in mind, the prediction online market is just one small step above the Magic 8 Ball, regardless of what’s said by those who give them as much credence as polls with high undecideds numbers.

Jeremy Moss

Don Ufford

Aisha Farooqi