HORSE RACE
With the top of the ticket looking more decidedly like a Biden-Trump rematch, CNN, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, The Hill and The Detroit News/WDIV are all forecasting that the U.S. Senate race to replace Senator Debbie Stabenow is currently a toss-up. Raising almost $3 million for the last quarter of 2023, for a total of $11.7 million this election cycle, Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) is still the likely Democratic candidate with a 40-point lead on her nearest primary competitor, actor Hill Harper. But she is in a dead heat with most declared Republican candidates, from former Congressmen Mike Rogers (R-Brighton) and Peter Meijer (R-Grand Rapids) and with slightly lower name recognition than former Detroit Police Chief James Craig. “There’s a lot of money for this race,” said one Republican who is pushing for Rogers. “He’s very smart and very moderate, and he can raise money.” Rogers recently endorsed former President Donald Trump, despite criticizing him in 2016 and 2020. “I think Trump wants him. He had to do it.” “He has the most experience, and if he can get the majority of the establishment to vote, then he will win,” said another Republican leader. In a twist, he believes the vote could be split and state board of education member Nikki Snyder could eke out the win. “Meijer’ll get the anti-Trump crowd, Craig has name ID, Sandy Pensler (a Grosse Pointe businessman who lost in the 2018 primary to John James despite spending millions of his own fortune) will throw in a lot of money, and Snyder will win with 20-22 percent. That’s how (former Gov. Rick) Snyder won in 2010.” He believes she is underrated but has a good chance to galvanize the grassroots who are active primary participants. “She’s been out the longest and she’s been at all the events.” He noted Meijer has been particularly invisible of late.